This third volume of the “EICTP Vienna Research Papers on Transnational Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism” is dedicated to the mostly unclear future of (transnational) terrorism in its widest sense. Manifold reflections of world-wide renowned experts (Nicolas Stockhammer, Joshua Sinai, Colin P. Clarke, Gary A. Ackerman, Marc Sageman, Brian Michael Jenkins, Herfried Münkler, Lorenzo Vidino, Rüdiger Lohlker, Olivier Roy, Sophia Moskalenko, Jean-Luc Vannier) hereafter, from very different angles and various perspectives, center around the strategic dimension of the phenomenon, which addresses a variety of trends, developments and possible scenarios that in combination will manifest a significant systemic transformation with a plurality of consequences. Under the assumption of a continuous ideological polarization and societal disruption in the West that is driven both ideologically and economically, this evident transformation of politically motivated violence will certainly bring leverage on the dynamic of terrorism and Salafi-jihadism in particular.

The contributions of this edition aim at a tentative prediction and forecast of what terrorism might look like in the near future. There are certain indicators such as the ongoing dominance of low level scenarios, a manifest virtualization of terrorism, continuous transnationalization, structural fragmentation (organizational fluidity) and hybridity that in sum entail a specific response from counter-terrorism institutions. Without doubt, as counter-terrorism in the West is deeply rooted in a tactical day-to-day business approach, where practitioners do their best to anticipate, avoid and foil terrorist plots, a keen strategic outlook is what matters most in order to identify future challenges.


Nicolas Stockhammer is a political scientist with focus on security policy and terrorism research. From 2004 to 2006 he was research fellow and university lecturer at the chair for Political Theory (Prof. Dr. Herfried Münkler) at Humboldt-University Berlin, Germany. Since 2014, Dr. Stockhammer has been working as senior post-doc researcher of the research group Polemology and Legal Ethics at the Institute for Legal Philosophy of the University of Vienna. With numerous publications in academic journals, articles published in print media as well as many media appearances as an expert for terrorism and terrorist developments, Stockhammer’s expertise on security policy-related issues continues to meet great interest in Austria and abroad. Currently Nicolas Stockhammer is in charge of the Scientific leadership and coordination of the Research Cluster “Counter-Terrorism, CVE (Countering Violent Extremism) and Intelligence” in the Department of Law and International Relations.


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EICTP Vienna Papers III

EICTP Vienna Papers III – Table of Contents