The EICTP Expert Paper “Between Terror and Amok” explores the growing overlap between terrorism and rampage violence, drawing on the 2024 Magdeburg Christmas market attack and the 2025 Graz school shooting as case studies. It highlights how hybrid extremism, digital radicalization, and stochastic violence increasingly blur the lines between ideologically motivated terrorism and impulsive acts…
The new EICTP study “Scenarios for Turkey’s political development until 2030”, produced in cooperation with the Center for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at SWP Berlin, develops six possible scenarios for Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy development. Based on a sound scenario methodology, it highlights opportunities and risks for Europe, especially Germany—from authoritarian consolidation and the…
This paper explores the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) with forensic linguistic and theological analysis to decode the visual propaganda of Salafi-Jihadi groups, particularly the Islamic State (IS). Recognizing the limitations of Western-centric and orientalist paradigms in conventional Terrorism Studies, the authors advocate for a decolonized, evidence-based approach that centers the theocentric worldview of jihadist…
The Islamist-motivated knife attack in Villach in February 2025 highlights the growing threat posed by online radicalization. Since the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, Salafist-jihadist networks have stepped up their propaganda on the internet and created a “virtual caliphate” that reaches young Muslims via social media and encrypted platforms. The alleged perpetrator in…
The evolving threat landscape of extremism and terrorism poses a central security policy challenge for European states, demanding a comprehensive and projective strategic analysis. Unlike many conventional trend reports that simply extrapolate past developments into the future, the EICTP European Trend Report on Terrorism 2025 (ETRT) is distinguished by its foundation in strategic foresight methodology.…
In volume 7 of the “EICTP Vienna Research Papers on Transnational Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism”, the latest trend-setting developments and phenomena of classic extremist phenomena (left-wing and right-wing extremism as well as Islamism) are presented in a comprehensible and concise manner. In addition, currently emerging forms such as anti-institutional extremism as well as conspiracy- and democracy-rejecting…
In August 2024, a terrorism plot assisted by the Islamic State, a jihadist militant group, targeting a concert of the American singer-songwriter Taylor Swift at the Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Vienna, the capital city of Austria, was uncovered and neutralised. Three males, aged 17, 18 and 19, were arrested for involvement in the plot that was intended…
Volume VI of the Vienna Papers Series opens a broad kaleidoscope of recent manifestations of extremism in Europe from militant climate activism to violent anti-government movements as well as terrorist groups and stakeholders in Africa, Asia and the United States. The transnational aspect becomes all the more relevant in a comparative perspective that aims at…
Due to the (current) sharp rise in anti-Semitic attacks and crimes, particularly following the Hamas terror attack against Israel, the EICTP has set itself the task of analyzing and assessing this phenomenon on an international comparative basis. Anti-Semitism poses a threat to our liberal society and must be vigorously combated, regardless of ideology, political convictions…
Often wrongly criticized, the concept of right-wing lone-actor terrorists is plausible since it only concerns planning and execution. Often also named “lone wolves”, lone-actor terrorists definitely take part in large ideological groups and must be considered in the light of large societal contexts. In other words, white supremacy, QAnon, Reichsbürger, Identitarianism, Incels, etc. must be…
For several months now, concerted actions by climate activists in various European countries and metropolises have regularly made headlines. The protests are staged in a targeted manner through short-term, high-profile, provocative and media-accompanied disruptive actions. Polarizing protests against the existing climate policy, which in the view of climate activists is not sustainable enough, are still…
Dr. Wolfgang Kraushaar examines in his paper whether a radicalization has already taken place in the context of the climate protest movement or whether it is to be expected; or whether this movement could slide in parts or even as a whole into terrorism. The explosive topic shows (not only due to the fact that…