The military escalation between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has repercussions far beyond the Middle East and acts as a threat multiplier and catalyst for the dynamic European security situation. In conjunction with the conflict-terrorism nexus, anti-Semitic mobilization, and new hybrid actor formats such as HAYI, a gray-zone threat is intensifying, in which terrorism, state influence, and organized crime are increasingly intertwined. Of particular relevance here is the ongoing shift toward low-level attacks, young perpetrators, and “disposable agents,” who are targeted through digital recruitment platforms and exploited to carry out low-threshold acts of violence whose perpetrators are difficult to identify.
The latest EICTP analysis suggests that the war with Iran has not merely intensified the European terrorist threat but has structurally reconfigured it: toward a persistent, decentralized, and strategically multidimensional threat environment.
EICTP ExpertPaper Hayi And The Hybride Terrorthreat In Europe ENGVersion