The evolving threat landscape of extremism and terrorism poses a central security policy challenge for European states, demanding a comprehensive and projective strategic analysis. Unlike many conventional trend reports that simply extrapolate past developments into the future, the EICTP European Trend Report on Terrorism 2025 (ETRT) is distinguished by its foundation in strategic foresight methodology. The European Institute for Counter Terrorism and Conflict Prevention (EICTP) utilizes the “SPHEERE” method-a collaborative, software-supported analysis platform-to systematically address these complex issues.
This approach involves a rigorous analysis of trends and their implications for the European security environment, conducted by a select group of experts. The process implies a strategic early warning system that integrates scenario planning and trend management, followed by in-depth opportunity and risk assessments, ultimately leading to the formulation of actionable strategy options for policymakers. Central to this methodology is the identification and evaluation of over one hundred trends shaping terrorism (and extremism) in Europe, categorized into etiological (cause-related) and morphological (manifestation-related) domains. Through cross-impact analysis and expert surveys, 34 key trends were selected and assessed for their relevance, impact, stability, and controllability, providing the foundation for nuanced trend projections and implications.
By employing this trend-based methodology, the analysis enables a dynamic understanding of the evolving terrorist threat landscape in Europe, highlighting both stable and volatile trends that could shape future scenarios. EICTP’s trend management approach emphasizes continuous monitoring and assessment, delivering early warnings and actionable insights for strategic decision-makers. This process not only identifies the most critical trends but also examines their possible or likely development, potential tipping points, and uncertainties-recognizing the interdependence of multiple trends and their collective influence on security dynamics.
Given the rapidly evolving and multidimensional nature of terrorist threats, tactics, and procedures, this report aims to provide a robust analytical toolkit designed to deliver effective answers to emerging and shifting security challenges.
This report is only available in english.